sagenz

Centre right execution of strategy progressing well

read a good back and forth comments section between a few nats over at Blair's: Mulholland Drive: Christmas Postcard from Rodney Hide.

as another nat I will jump in. As good as Dr Brash would have been as PM or Finance minister, politically he had to go in a clean break from the past.

you are both quite wrong that the key is attacking weaknesses. look at the way swift boat tore kerry apart. that was destroying his only strength.

I completely agree that the environment is being removed as a differentiating issue by john key.

i suggest blair that you look to john keys policy detail rather than his reassurring announcements before you write him off. imagine the political gift to labour if he had come out and said he backs everything don brash did and tax cuts are the most important thing in nz politics.

on what basis does that bear any relationship to sound politics?

sandy - its so great that you are reduced to suggesting that english said something different on the radio. talk about a lame attack.

personally i do not think john key/bill english have put a foot wrong so far. the public know they are more likely to get tax cuts out of national than labour. but that platform did not win them the last election.

fwiw i also think rodney hide has spent a very sensible time outside politics completely rebuilding his public persona. he will come back to politics in 2007 refreshed and presenting a serious personable leader of the right. act will attract a lot of disaffected dry national voters which is a good thing as it will give act back a voice.

I do not think the centre right could have played their cards better to this point.

But wait for the labour honeymoon to end and they will start attacking him personally with vigour.

look for key to stay above that and keep labour on their back foot with policy positions completely at odds with previous positions. key has understood that owning the centre is critical. if that means being slagged off by libertarian ideologists unable to recognise that key is a smart operator then so be it.

aaron linked to the latest roy morgan and lookinng at the results it seemed immediately clear that winstonn has finished with parliament.  his plan is to move from foriegn minister to being made ambassador to the US.  whether that happens before the end of next parliament who knows.  winston is smart enough to figure out that he has a had a good run but he will not get back in next time.  moving to auckland means he has surrendered the seat to clarkson and he just will not get the traction for the next election.

as i said above I think acts polling will improve significantly once rodney refocuses on parliament.  for him personally and professionally to make a break fromm his past persona is a sensible thing now that he is tied to an electorate.  he will get the older female vote in epsom that he repelled before, and that cements him.

assuming act share remains around 2% giving 2 seats with national up at 44.5% and nzf out of parliament but taking 4% of the vote that gives a hung parliament with Maori as king makers.  what is interesting is that the green vote is finally starting to reflect voters shedding labour.  they seem to have resolved leadership and norman seems a sensible kind of guy who will not alienate voters.  They get 11 seats according to Morgans data.  that would be their best ever result.  but it raises the point that Labour green support is holding at around 57-68 seats despite all the dirt surrounding labour.

I think if John Key can continue to keep Labour on the back foot and not gift positions allowing Labour to beat them over the head with mean nasty nats there is a real chance that votes will start to trickle across to national.

I have been commenting at a few of the libertarian blogs that they should not give up on john key so quickly.  i admit to having been surprised at how quickly the libertarian pack have turned.  even blair expressing disquiet, and he is a national member.

on what basis does anybody think that voters have endorsed or will endorse libertarian economic policy any time soon.  Dr Brash came  very close, but in the end enough people believed the lies from labour and voted left.  John Key remains somewhat of an enigma in terms of his policy beliefs.  He has clearly shown himself to be very astute strategically and pragmatic. 

If I had one criticism of Dr Brash while he was leader of the reserve bank it was his willingness to stamp out growth too quickly in order to maintain inflation targets.

John key has succeeded in the biggest genuine open market of all - currency trading.  sound ideology does not count.  what works counts.  I think he will bring that approach to bear on nz politics.  he will be very open to ideas and will be quite happy to endorse policy from wherever it comes proving it helps the boat go faster.  The same things apply to making money long term in currency markets as applies to running a successful economy, spotting and getting ahead of global trends.  I do not expect peter cresswell to endorse john key any time soon however.

Key has endorsed Cullens super fund which is an imperfect start to answering New Zealands savings problems.  Now is an opportunity for those amongst us who like to propose policy to get involved in making sure National policies appeal to enough voters to get rid of the corrupt mob we have now.

I hope everyone has a good New Year.  I look forward to re-engaging on the blog in 2007.  Things have improved here but I still have a few things that take priority over blogging

National backs curbs on funding - STUFF : POLITICS - STORY : New Zealand's leading news and information website

How about a real waste of taxpayers money.  All of those who are getting so irate about private citizens spending their own money to back their own views. National backs curbs on funding.

National is backing moves to curb election advertising by outside groups such as the Exclusive Brethren and says it will support plans to clamp down on anonymous party donations. But it is countering Labour's plans, which are intended to limit National's ability to raise funds, with a call to bring government-funded advertising - a potential loophole worth tens of millions of dollars to governing parties - under the ambit of any review of campaign finances. At the last election Labour pencilled in more than $20 million to promote its Working for Families package, a linchpin of its 2005 Budget and election campaign. The size of the government-department advertising budget was trimmed to around $15 million after an investigation by the auditor-general, but National labelled it an abuse of the process.

And where did that 20 mill come from???  no prizes for guessing

Three reasons to be happy with John Key

Not PC asks .

I'm trying to summon up some enthusiasm for John Key. . . . . . . . No. Can't do it. Can anyone tell me three reasons that I should?

1.He made his money in a real competitive market. Not just talking the talk but walking the walk.
2. He is smart enough not to have committed himself to positions he can be caned with before he needs to
3. His personal history has an enormous added value and there is a reasonable chance he will take a pragmatic rather than idealistic course to add value for New Zealand

PROPOSALS FOR WORKPLACE SAVINGS SCHEME BADLY FLAWED

Introducing a new and likely occasional contributor to sagenz. Tony will tend to provide more thoughtful comment than some of the pith you have come to expect with my writing.

Moore and Klein - Self Aware or self absorbed

We are here, why? Try explaining the pajamahadeen to a 78 year old who served during the second war and grew up in the great depression. You have to put it in simple words.
Stones Cry Out: linked from Hewitt offers an interesting view of a bloggers motivations. So I thought I would offer mine.

We are enabled by technology to offer our thoughts to the world. I used to vaguely know a guy who published a newspaper. It failed and he went through enormous amounts of money . Yet I have a wider reach and someone is hosting this for free (for now). I write with a "global" readership. (at least 3 countries).

I followed the unfolding Rather intriguing forgery as it unfolded and what was truly instructive to me was how far off the pace and biased the print media in New Zealand truly is. The CBS piece aired on Wednesday 8 September. I picked up the doubt on the Thursday and following the birth of the pajamahadeen on the Friday and into Saturday. By Sunday it was all over. The evidence, presented, challenged, proven. But the NZ Herald had not even mentioned it. On Monday 13th they managed to get one overseas opinion article to suggest
"But within 24 hours the documents were being challenged - raising suspicions that CBS had fallen victim to a hoax by Bush supporters to discredit critics of the President's military record. " That says it all really.

If you are a non blog reader reliant on a local newspaper, you are entirely reliant on their version of the truth. One that twists and distorts to the point where it is a lie. 5 Days later on the 18th, after CBS had finally admitted the piece was wrong, the Herald finally (after stars had been born, flamed, super novaed and dwarved) printed a well written analysis of what happened.

The blogger is there because nobody in this world can be really believed. Not the religious kooks who would have us believe in 72 virgins, nor the believers in the same god who would have your salvation guaranteed if you would just send a cheque. Truth is not the Naomi Kleins and Michael Moores who have made jumping to conclusions from half formed factoids and an entertaining writing style into a massively profitable enterprise. Those of a different political persuasion rant about the lies and conspiracy theories they raise but ask yourself this question.

Have these two and their latter imitators seen a higher truth.

Are they self aware or really self absorbed? If they are self absorbed they really believe it. But if they are self aware, truth is not the issue, the making of profit from the exaggeration and conspiracy theorising is the issue. NO LOGO is the best marketing analysis I have ever read. But if it was just a marketing book it would get no airtime. Repackage it as a moral fight against the corporates or the bushes and suddenly it takes on a whole new value in the eyes of the credulous masses, ready to pick up on any crumb of relief that the system is stacked against them. Moore is a failed student, but he raises himself (in the eyes of the credulous) to the same level as GW Bush by making the most outrageous accusations. The "censoring" of Farkenheck911 being only the most recent example.

We in the blogosphere are not "trusted" to present a truth. There are so many sources and so many "truths".

No Master, We are but Filters. There is so much data in this world that we may only hope to point people on the right path where they will find their truth.

David Farrar has the polls

David Farrar has the latest poll results showing Labour even with National and Maori gaining 3 seats. If you believe that Maori will sweep all 7 seats without necessarily taking the proportional number of votes there is a potential for a 3-4 seat overhang from the maori seats alone. If you also believe the greens will go over the threshold of 5%, that would give helengrad the opportunity to govern without even the mild restraining influence of United Future/Winston First. They will of course both be represented due to their electorate seats. Clearly the National Party needs to do something about the parties drawn into parliament by 1 electorate seat. They need ACT there and must do something with an electorate to make sure of that.

Stepping above the parapet

Sage ventured out into the void. Here I am. opinionated white male. driven from the shores of helengrad by the need to care for my family. driven to distraction by the incredible hypocrisy and nanny statist of pricks like Marjorie Maharey with his Hugo Boss suits, provincial college professor in sociology or some other inane crap.

Jeannette I recycle my loo paper Fitzsimons with her nagging at the rest of us to stop using cars and be green. fuck off you hypocritical nanny. your job is in wellington. live there and stop hogging more than your share of the land and polluting the skies using my money to fly back and forth form the home of weasels.
and all of your anti american righteousness. can so many of you forget how america freed the world from Nazi and the Soviet tyranny. then went meekly home to get on with their lives.

I am not American but the only proud religious association I have is to be the go father of a half American young man. GW you are the man. You have done your country proud. Be steadfast and history will recognise your contribution as it did that of churchill and reagan.