I have been watching the events unfold and reading the various opinions for and against. It occurs to me that the reason Labour are prepared to risk public disfavour by talking about public funding for campaigning is that they are broke and know that after repaying the $824,000 they stole they will have insufficient money for 2008. So they are proposing to make up the shortfall by raiding public coffers again. The risk of public disfavour is outweighed by their lack of money.
National and supporters of democracy are going to fight against this. The next election will turn into a referendum on whether the public should pay for party campaigning.
The media have really understood the issues. An excellent editorial from the Herald on Sat and this piece that dpf has already linked to; Fran O'Sullivan: Clark damaged goods after battle of Helengrad ;provide excellent examples of the sort of blunt reporting that has arisen from this blunder by Labour.
We won. You lost. Eat that!" No, we're not talking about Finance Minister Michael Cullen's crowing over Labour's dirty election victory.
We're talking about the roar from the courageous journalists, bloggers, National Party MPs, gutsy public servants, and lawyers who dug deep into the electoral-spending scandal.
Bloggers on the right can take heart at being among the first to call Helen Clark and Labour liars, thieves and corrupt. Certainly well before MSM and National started public & parliamentary calls. It has definitely had an effect. I recall being advised by those close to me that I risked libel for some of the things I was writing and that I should be careful. Truth is always a defence against libel and we have been proven right.
It remains a national scandal that H2 - as Simpson is commonly known - was lucky to escape criminal charges in the first place, after a gutless police force refused to take action against her for alleged breaches of the Electoral Act
Bloggers and commenters should not cease to call for Heather Simpson and Mike Smiths jobs. They remain culpable for theft from the taxpayer and electoral corrupt practice.
Those who are rabbiting on about elections skewed by non public funding should consider that the parties already receive around $40m. How they choose to use that is essentially up to them. So lets not pretend there is no public funding now.
People suggesting that private funding should be banned are apologists for some very severe restrictions on freedom of speech. Never mind the exclusive brethren, how about farmers on the fart tax or Forest & Bird campaigning over pastoral leases.
In any reasonably constructed system private money in addition to public money would be able to be spent. So all changes to election funding will achieve is increasing the amount of public funds being spent.
I reiterate that the reason the Left are talking about more public funds is because they understand they are broke now and they want to get sufficient public monies to campaign. The next election is going to be a referendum on whether Labour and the left should be able to take public monies for their own campaigning. Expect the demise of NZF & UF on that basis.
What has been interesting is that the polls have held up for the left. Despite all the negativity over the last year the combined vote of Labour, Green and Progressive has scarcely dropped. Nationals increased share of the vote has come from UF and NZF. Call it wishful thinking but the left share of the vote has to decrease now that Labour have admitted culpability and will repay the monies.
The key to electoral success for National will be attacking the integrity of Labour. When you look at the poll numbers, even if National were to get 45% and Labour 36%, whoever wishes to form the government is forced to rely on the votes of the Maori party. So the Maori party will become the kingmakers. The Greens will get close to 7% and this brings up the share of the left along with Jim Anderton.
It by no means guaranteed that National will form the next government. Up to now sufficient people have been willing to overlook the corruption of the Labour party in polling. Cullens tax cuts in 2008 will be adeptly targeted at the key marginal voters. Expect little or nothing for business there, they do not vote. Expect no cut in the top marginal rate, although an increase in the threshold is likely. Instead expect a further increase in Working for Families.
The key question becomes whether the greed of middle New Zealand outweighs their disgust at being ripped off and lied to by Labour.
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