Gerald Baker in The Times has a new perspective on changes in US foriegn policy that is worth a read. The wild ride is over. The days of an aggressive US foreign policy are gone.
Iran offers the most powerful evidence of this sea change. This week’s news that the Administration is to channel funds to the Iranian opposition represents not the escalation of tension that some have reported, but a backing away away from confrontation. Well-sourced rumours from the White House in the past week have been absolutely clear. This President has no intention of firmly confronting Iran.
As the fierce stars of Mr Bush’s first term wane, others of a softer sparkle are in the ascendant. Condoleezza Rice is the brightest. Dr Rice is smart and affable. Above all, she has the President’s ear.
I posted previously on the way Iran would be treated. Iran will get nuclear weapons and they will be "encouraged" not to use them. The political consequences of action against Iran are now too high.
My conclusion is that the US government will offer something similar to what Maggie told the iraqis. Diplomatic means will be used to slow their progress towards Nuclear Weapons, but the consequences of Iran ever pre-emptively striking Iraq or israel would be very high.
The impact on the next US election of a quieter foriegn policy is interesting. There will apparently be less to choose from between the 2 sides. Rationally the best thing that could be done for the advance in democracy in the next few years is to allow things to stabilise. Iran will get nuclear weapons. Once you have formed that conclusion the strategy to follow is to ensure that the least damage is done in getting there.
The Hamas victory in Palestine really has changed things. If they behave themselves we can expect relative peace & a two state solution to entrench itself. There is much more danger for Hamas in attacking Israel now. It is the state.
It has been interesting to observe how the US and Britain have both backed away from the whole cartoon controversy. Now is the time for continental Europe to confront realities of their policies. What is also curious is how many people have completely miscontrued the original point of the cartoons. That point was to challenge Muslim tolerance. Self censorship had been continuously practiced to the point where nobody had been willing to make any comment.
We have seen the results.
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