Some of the best news of the campaign so far. It looks as though ACT will make it in the strength of an electorate seat in Epsom. I would suggest they will be down to 4 MP's. Still enough to be effective. It would mean Graham Scott missing out which would be a shame.
The Special Morgan Poll, shows Mr Hide ahead of Mr Worth in the Electorate Vote — 39% compared with 32% - while 11% of electors in the seat remain undecided. Although Labour Party candidate Stuart Nash has withdrawn, he is attracting 12% of the vote, with the remaining 6% of votes being distributed among other Parties. When those who are undecided on voting intention were asked who they were leaning towards, ten times as many named Mr Worth than did Mr Hide.
Revealed in an ACT newsletter and the original poll over at David Farrar - I am not quite sure how to analyse it, except that there may be a backlash to Clark telling Labour to vote Worth.
All of the polls overstate the NZF vote. Oldies are at home and simple scaling back to their proportion of the population as the fairfax poll appears to do does not cut it. Still they look likely to hit the 5% even if they lose Tauranga.
For the first time I would be prepared to put money on Dr Brash being the next Prime Minister. Even talking to my Labour/Green sister this morning I felt Labour would get back in. (She thought it would be a National government!! So we were both depressed. Go figure). From my analysis National ( around 52 seats) was likely to get more votes than Labour (around 49 seats ) but would not have minor party support to overcome the 9 Green, 4 Maori, 1 Prog Coll that would take Labour over the magic 61 mark.
But this poll is the tipping point. From a reputable accurate pollster (despite comments at dpf) They did well at the Ozzie election but admit they overcalled the Greens - Morgan Poll Most Accurate on Major Parties.
I will be buying some bottles of NZ champagne this evening and putting them in the fridge. Good luck to all those National/Act volunteers. I have been there done that and am sorry not to be joining you this time around.
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