sagenz: Election Date Prediction change 17 September

Election Date Prediction change 17 September

I have been a long time supporter of the view that Labour would go with an early election. Supported by the motorcade case on August 1 and the appearance that National were less organised. Since 20 March when I made that prediction a number of things have changed. Labour have presented an underwhelming budget that has been received very badly. Winston has picked up a lot of support with picking immigration fights. And most of all National has released a very strong and appealing set of election billboards. With that combination of events I now think it crazy that helen & mike williams would call an election within the next 2 weeks. mike williams knows that he screwed up pitching media & hence public expectations over the budget. In order to avoid any possibility that his poor communication would recieve blame for an electoral defeat he wil have become a strong advocate of waiting till September.

Audrey Young in nzh writes that September 17 is the second-best bet: As far away as possible from the motorcade case. Gives Labour the longest time possible to address resentment over tax. Avoids any sense of an early election. Symbolism of a spring election could be used to advantage. But August 20 is her best bet.

helen is a control freak. There is no possibility she will place her fate in the hands of lawyers defending the policemen in the motorcade case who would then potentially call her 3 weeks before an election. Imagine her trying to bullshit a court 3 weeks out that she had no idea of the speed she was going and she had no idea why the police (not her & her staffers) wanted to get her there so quickly.

Darth Farrar suggests other reasons August 20 is unlikely as there would be an eight week campaign as it would need to be called by June 20 to fit in with parliament. There would be problems with valedictory speeches and other things. He confirms his view with "So I am now going to pick September 17 as most likely. ". Just Left says "I still think the election will be in September,"

I agree with both of them and change my prediction to September 17.

Away from motorcade case suits helen

Away from budget suits mike williams and cullen

helengrad will hope that NZF and National support will ebb labour will regain the momentum

I hope that National manages the billboards well and has some additional ones to keep the campaign fresh. 3 months is not too long for them to be up if they are rotated around. Making sure eventually everybody sees them.

Posted by sagenz on Jun 04, 2005 at 10:35 AM | Permalink