sagenz

Not PC: Top ten best things about Winston Peters

Not PC: Top ten best things about Winston Peters.

Top ten best things about Winston Peters Winston's latest immigration grandstanding gives him headlines, hatred and polling increases, showing you can never underestimate the market for bare-faced, scaremongering xenophobia. But there are good things about Winston Peters.

Irony alert - If you are an NZF supporter, (How did you find this site let alone get on the internet) Not PC is being deadly serious.  Think of the possibilities of Winston & Dr Don in government.  Late night whiskey and Corned Beef & Pea sandwich sessions.

Cullen & Wilson are backing the Maori Party

There is a rising level of speculation on the election date.  With the latest poll data out I had a look at a possible outcome.  Previous sagenz analysis had life looking difficult for National.  As the polls reflect the continuing decline in Labours standing in the electorate things are looking decidedly better.  The love in between Winston & Dr Don may not be to the appetite of all on the centre right but better someone like Winston in government with National than completely controlled by helengrad.

I had wondered if Cullen and Wilson were vulnerable.  If Labour held at 40% of the vote and held all their electorate seats apart from the Maori seats there would be 8 list seats.  Reality says the disappearance of some electorate seats to Maori will provide a buffer for Labour in the event of an unexpectedly strong showing in the electorates.  I take the view that ACT will get back in. Their supporters do not like pollsters and polls always understate their final tally.  Dr Worth will run as energetic a campaign as he needs to in order to help the centre right.  Labour's headline rate will bleed to other smaller parties and National will lose some votes to ACT.

At this point a coalition based around either party is theoretically possible.  On principle Maori should look to a centre right coalition.  Obviously like Labours criticism of Tim Groser, that would mean they have no principles.  Only those who support helengrad are allowed those.   

The longer Labour wait the longer their support will ebb.  My post of 20 March had Labour waiting 2 weeks after the budget to see what happens.  That means caucus this week will be interesting. 

The comment on a 30 July election in the MSM is decidedly less critical than it was of the budget.  Mike Williams must be wondering whether to hold off and hope the momentum of National dies down.  On the basis of National's latest billboards there is an excellent focus that was missing previously.  I really like the red/blue contrast.  The focus means the momentum should build.  You can also rely on ACT/Winston First to release some more dirt.  So expect continuing problems for Labour together with rising momentum and confidence from National.  As I have said on comments at Jordans blog, the tipping point has been reached.  The centre left is declining along with the prospects for the economy.

On the basis of United Future tax policy and their being steamrollered during the last term over values based policies I think their people are much more likely to be comfortable with a National lead government.

The format of the table below builds on 2002 position and takes into account various electorate result probabilities.  I think there will be a much bigger swing to National in the electorates and Labour reaches the critical under 38% share of the vote.

Party	2002	Latest Raw Poll %	Revised Prediction %	Elect-orate	List	Total	Possible Labour Partner	Possible National Partner
	Votes %	31-May	July	Seats	Seats	Seats
Labour Party	41.26	40.0	37.4	41	6	47	47
National Party	20.93	36.0	35.0	21	23	44		44
New Zealand First	10.38	10.0	10.0	1	11	12	12	12
ACT New Zealand	7.14	3.0	5.0	1	5	6		6
Green Party	7	6.0	6.0	0	7	7	7
United Future	6.69	2.0	2.0	1	1	2	2	2
Jim Anderton's PC	1.7	1.0	1.0	1	0	1	1
Maori Party		1.0	1.0	4	0	4	4
CHP	1.35		0.0			0
Outdoor Rec	1.28	1.0	1.3			0
Alliance	1.27		0.5			0
ALCP	0.64		0.6			0
Mana Maori	0.25		0.1			0
OneNZ Party	0.09		0.1			0
NMP	0.01		0.0			0
		100	100.0	70	53	123	73	64
Overhang				3		3

The Maori Party is a party of self determination

Interesting post from Just Left: The Maori Party is *not* on the left.

I have been bemused a little by the assumption some people make that the Maori Party sits on the left side of the spectrum of New Zealand Politics. This is a reasonably broadly held view, but it is incorrect.

Two themes.  Maori have determined that they need self determination to restore their mana or self respect.  As Pita Sharples and John Tamihere and many other modern Maori have identified the welfare state saps strength and determination, it does not restore it.  80 years of being patronised by Labour had to end sometime. The cost of social welfare on self respect for all people, not just Maori.

In my mind it is now important to distinguish between continuing demands for settlement justice, wailing for individual welfare and the move towards a hard headed business approach to farming the government for money using whatever means available.

The first must be addressed, Labour is comfortable with the second and does not seem to have understood the rise of the third. Ngai Tahu is a good example.

From the history I have read Maori were strongly entrepreneurial and traders when European first arrived.  It is the welfare state that has suppressed dissent and undermined the will for self determination.  Was that a price worth paying to get us to where we are now?  That is now changing.  It is a good thing that Maori recognise their future success lies in themselves not in ongoing reliance on patronising Labour generosity through the welfare system.

I would characterise  social democrats as  placing community before the individual.  I would note that Communism & National Socialism had the same aims and quasi religious belief base.

The much vaunted Sweden is also the gutless country that remained neutral against the Nazi threat.  Their "community" remained more important than the principles of individual self determination that conservatives hold dear.

As a last point if conservatives stand for maintaining the existing order why do people not wholeheartedly support America in overthrowing the tyranny that was Iraq.  Never mind WMD, it was right on its own merits.

Beaches belong to all New Zealanders

For the record I thought the billboard was hilarious and agreed with Aaron and David that:

bhatnagar.blogspot.com: New outstanding National Party ad.
Yep - National is gaining momentum. A very clever billboard

David Farrar - "substance over form tends to be more important"

But what does Just a Left Hack: The new National Party billboard say. - "Even the comments on the right wing blogs are writing it off as being too nasty by far."

Well that is three zip by my count.  Methinks Jordan is getting desparate just like the rest of Labour.  After all, National could form a government with Winston First & Maori based on the latest polling & media comments. ;)

The billboard makes the excellent point that what has become Legal & customary public land should  remain that way.  Treating one group of New Zealanders as having more rights than another & pandering to them to gain votes is the real problem.

"Cranking a small organ"

" Most NZ voters, bloggers, shills and party hacks need no further instruction on how to crank a small organ of course, but never mind."

Sometimes you see that perfect quote.  The feeling expressed a little while ago is returned.  you know what I mean o'b

Darth Farrar - He has been christened

NZPundit has come up with the most apposite name of the campaign.

Link via Darth Farrar, who really should know better.) Posted by OtherPundit at 09:42 AM | Comments (6)

Woulda, shoulda, coulda.

It would have been nice to blog from Madrid but I had other things in my mind.  Like sipping sangria in plaza de mayor and wandering aimlessly through the retiro.  I was out there this week and thought to make a few comments from the blog but technophobia was the name of the game. I did not have a laptop with me and the machine I eventually had access to could not even read a USB flash drive.  ffs.  The expectations we have nowadays of the performance levels of our machinery.  Imagine if teh ploughmen of old had been as pernickety with their machines.

Technophobia not exhibited on behalf of the Spanish who.  It was just that series of horrible coincidentally bad events when you are not on your own ground and end up digging in a pile of shite. I had previously had this sort of siesta taking generalisation of the spanish, but shit sorted was my impression this time.  The french.  Well they are socialist democrats.

To make matters worse on the techno front, I have just moved house and the broadband had been downgraded to dial up for a few weeks so the desire to sit aimlessly in front of pc waiting for shit to load was just not there.  This post now comes to you from broadband and the pc has just started behaving as though it has taken viagra.  What was a slow lumbering beast taking 5 minutes to open outlook last night has turned into a nimble quick machine that anticipates my every command.  Nothing to do with the Rioja I have been supping.

Northern summer is here and I am now full of the joys of spring.  It was 34 deg today. 

I reckon I had one of those conversations today where you just know that things are swinging your way.  You did some groundwork months, even years ago and have been quietly plugging away until out of the blue from a completely unexpected source comes the opportunity. 

Now to feed that tender seedling.  It has raised itself above the earth in a hostile environment and now needs some nurturing.  Not too close or it will shy away and give up the ghost,

So that is the extent of my poetic licence.  Off to thrash those socialist bastards.  wasnt that poll a good result.  Sort of balanced by the comment that NATIONAL COULD RULE......In coalition with Winston First and the Maori Party?????   Yeah Right....

Lets beat the Lions and tip those socialists out.

Te Radar in nzh is worth a read

I dont normally read his columns but the eye was attracted. I thought it was funny even if it did poke the borax at Dr Don

In National's romantic comedy, a shy accountant tries to woo the sultry electorate.  Threatened by bullies, and a pathological inability to say the right thing at the right time in the right way, will he ever win the heart of his sweetheart?

An early election is likely

I am hoping to be wrong about my 23 July prediction now.  There has been a fair bit of speculation about the election date.  The Prime Minister might call an early election while New Zealanders are preoccupied with the Lions rugby tour, Winston Peters says.

The comment I found the unintentionally funniest was Jordan over at  Just Left with his "The problem with it is that we don't know whether the current crop of SNAFUs will come to have an impact on the election outcome".

Now you know and I know that SNAFU means Sitaution Normal, All F%^ked Up.  So Jordan has just admitted that the normal situation in Helengrad is for the Prime Minster to be lying to the media, her education minister being chucked out for beating students, her great Maori hope trash talking his colleagues, Billions being wasted on crappy tertiary education schemes, the NCEA becoming a worthless qualification in employers and parents eyes, Police oversight being non existent, the list goes on.

So what he is saying is that is normal AND that is ONLY THE CURRENT CROP.... It gets worse....It gets much worse...

Anyway I think the decision on when to have the election may be deferred from the next two weeks.  They will be having a weekly review from now at which they decide to go or no go.  23 July remains a hot date for the election if things were to die down in the next few weeks. If their media are able to damp down comment effectively they may still go early.  If however as is likely to happen the pile of shit gets deeper and they start drowning under it then they will defer and hope that things get better.  The longer they wait the worse economic conditions will be and the less credible their competence claims. 

So I hope I am wrong about the election date and right that the bad news keeps piling up for them.  That would mean waiting 3 more months rather than 3 more years to get rid of them.  More on the competence claims soon

So on the basis that things are going badly for them if they defer

I am hoping that I will be wrong

Depreciation does help small business

Russell Brown at  Public Address | Hard News has a remarkably restrained piece on the Budget .

First, the government is now officially planning on a mid-September election. Second, this ought to be clear by now: Michael Cullen does not see tax relief as an end in itself, but as an overall policy instrument. I'm surprised and a little disappointed that the bracket adjustment won't happen until 2008, but pleased that they will now be CPI-indexed. At first glance, the tax relief for business looks pretty good for my small businesses, and - subject to accountant's confirmation - more immediately useful than a cut in the headline tax rate.

Depreciation changes will help small (& large) businesses that are reinvesting in equipment.  This is something in the budget to be praised.

So Russell thinks it will be September. I have blogged previously on the probability of a July election.  All of the travails of helengrad revealed over the past few mnonths have increased the probability that the election would be deferred as the government tries to get past the memory of the public. 

I think the analysis is reasonable but wrong.  things are going to get worse for this governemnet not better.  The longer they defer the more scandals will be revealed and the greater the likelihood that they will be thrown out.  If I were Mike Williams I would settle for a smaller majority and being returned to power.

But hey if they want to go for September and increase the chance of a National lead government great.