sagenz

Heading for a tarawera

out of blog range for the next few days.  back on weds.  so you will have to wait to suffer more of my ranting.

helengrad lying about its membership

Jonathon Milne in the herald reports that helengrad have been lying about their membership in an attempt to get more electoral funding. In a corporate environment that would rightly be called fraud.

But in their enthusiasm to boast of Labour's strength by disclosing their party numbers for the first time, it quickly became clear that their claimed membership figure of 48,609 was shonky at best. It appears that once union affiliate members and double-counting are taken out, Labour's real individual membership is little over 10,000 - only one third of National's membership and smaller even than the new Maori Party's membership.

The New Zealand Herald

The New Zealand Herald reports that the cruel Labour department had its goons out enforcing the will of the state. Shouldn't the Labour Department be prosecuted for making its people work illegally.  Presumably the inspectors were not voluntary.

Labour Department inspectors hunting out shops illegally opening on Good Friday found several retailers trading yesterday.

Rights of Way and the laws of Trespass

Looke: Just Laws with a Hat Tip The Edge of Englands sword have a comment from Lord Denning which bears repetition

The people of England do not obey the law because they are commanded to do so; nor because they are afraid of sanctions or being punished. They obey the law because they know it is the thing they ought to do . . . For this reason it is most important that the law should be just. People will respect rules which are intrinsically right and just, and will expect their neighbours to obey them, as well as obeying them themselves: but they will not feel the same about rules which are unrighteous or unjust. If people are to feel a sense of obligation to the law, then the law must correspond, as near as may be, to justice. (Lord Denning: a Biogaphy, Weidenfeld and Nicolson, 1990).

My point.  Only that I am about to break a good law that does not correspond to justice.  There are some very serious considerations in courting a conviction for Trespass. 

My family and many others have established a public right of way over more than 70 years through a back route up to the peak of Mt Tarawera from the lake.  This land has NEVER been inhabited.  But it is privately owned.  At the time of the Tarawera eruption there were less than 100 people living in 3-4 settlements around the shores of the lake.  All of the Ngati Rangitihi  that lived around the lake were wiped out in the eruption.  For many years nobody took care of or did anything with the area around Mt Tarawera.

People including locals and tourists taking the "government" ferry to the Landing  became accustomed to using this route and not paying for it.   No maintenance was done as none was required.  A happy state of affairs.

A few years ago the private owner of the land started to enforce rights of access.  For a few years the owner enforced a payment for all those using the road at the back.  Then the owner leased the land to another private individual.

You are now only able to access the mountain if you drive around to Kawerau and take a commercial trip up from the back of the mountain.  This has nothing of the joy of walking up from the lake up through forest and then out onto the barren slopes of the mountain with ever better views of the scenery.  Up the 45 degree scree slope to the fantastic views available from the front of the mountain followed by out of control charging down the scree slope with careless abandon then leaping into the cool waters of the lake at the end of the tramp.

For those of you who value private property rights and think that no trespass is acceptable, consider what would happen if you were unable to walk to your favourite beach, strip off and take a swim without paying a fee to some goon standing on the beach who insisted you swam only at the other less attractive end of the beach.

I am curious to know your reaction.  In my humble opinion New Zealand needs to legislate for public rights of way.  A long established concept in the UK which balances private property rights with public rights of way.

How far is New Zealand moving to the left?

It seems that everybody is wondering about how successful the socialist agenda has been in New Zealand this week starting with Chris Trotter in The Independent: This Week with a highly readable analysis irrespective of your political views.

This was particularly demoralising for left-wing social democrats who, for years, had talked about achieving socialism by "peaceful and democratic means." What they had in mind, of course, was a command economy without gulags. But if Soviet economics simply didn't work, then where was history leading them? The answer, infuriatingly, appeared to be capitalism.

Chris Trotter was also quoting from Catherine Judds speech to the ACT conference:

Judd is only too aware of history's little ironies.  Summing up her party's position, she noted wryly that, in a post-Soviet world, change tends to come from the free-market direction.

"[I]t is now the socialists who are the party of the status quo," she lamented. "The Labour Party is now presenting itself as a middle-of-the- road party and its instincts are establishment."

If I did not doubt that spanblather: It's that old slogan all over again - I'd rather have a revolution than a Labour Government read a business weekly and/or avidly followed the ACT conferences I would have thought that started Span's thought process.  Maybe ACT really are setting the agenda for the left;)

Some of the loopier lefties come out on span comments.  We have this great avowal of how well Venezuela with Chavez and Cuba under Castro have done.  Its all related to an infant death statistic apparently The only thing I am really really curious about is given the Cubans have had 50 years of Castro why is the poverty level income in America about the same as the average wage in New Zealand and why is the poverty level wage in New Zealand vastly higher than the average wage in Venezuela and Cuba.

span got No Right Turn onto the subject of political consensus in New Zealand stating

The political centre in New Zealand is thus fairly left-wing by international standards, and there's solid support across our political spectrum for policies which Labour seems to have discarded as "too left"

Do we really have all sides of the political spectrum agreeing that Labour represents the centre these days?  That would certainly be a cause and effect reason for the relative decline in New Zealands economic position over the past  40 years.  Cause, in that socialism and socialist attitudes undermine economic development and effect in the fact of our socialist government.  Effect as evidenced by our socialist government who bemoan they have not yet raised the average level of tax over 50%.

What was also interesting is the anger on the left about how little Labour had achieved and how lacking in competence the helengrad elite really are.  The laundry list of achievements is depressingly or refreshingly  short depending on your point of view.  Removing the rights of free association through the ERA and later amendments would be the lowlight.

On the question of whether the "uncaring right" do anything for the poor Freudian Slippers: Money - As beautiful as roses sums things up well with a quote:

We do not hear the term ‘compassionate’ applied to business executives or entrepreneurs, certainly not when they are engaged in their normal work. Yet in terms of results in the measurable form of jobs created, lives enriched, communities built, living standards raised, and poverty healed, a handful of capitalists has done infinitely more for mankind than all the self-serving politicians, academics, social workers, and religionists who march under the banner of ‘compassion.’ ~ Nathaniel Branden

Just Left: Schiavo Case

PNN has such a way with words. Just Left: was commenting on the Schiavo Case.

Jordan said - "issues of personal choice and morality become ever more subject to the interference of do-gooder fuckwits."

PNN came back with - Change "morality" to "money" and you have a perfect description of the Labour Party.

Took me a while to stop laughing.  Jordan jumps on the anything America does must be bad with his opening slag off - I don't usually comment on the madness that is America these days,

That would be the America that has a poverty level wage about the same level as New Zealands average wage, the America that has gone after the jihadists and brought democracy to 50 million people as opposed to the Clinton who wrung his hands so effectively as 800,000 died in Rwanda. 

That would be in comparison to the likes of the great nirvana Sweden who were so prepared to stand by as neutral while milions were slaughtered in the holocaust.

Did I really just say Mike Williams talks reality?

Pull the other one Mike, its got bells on. Welcome to Newstalk ZB.

Mike Williams says they have to be ready because Labour is a minority government which could lose a vote in Parliament and fall at any time. At this stage, the planning is still based around a poll date of September 17 or 24, but he concedes the Government could pull the plug early.

Mike Williams confirms there will be an early election with about the most pathetic excuse I have ever heard.  On that basis helengrad would have ahd a dynamic list and would be ready all the time.  The reality is that helengrad have a solid and policy area variable coalition.  NZF, Greens, UF all know they will lose people when the election comes so they really will not rock the boat.  A few desperate more months in parliament is far more important than any policy principles.

So how many people have died for the helengrad top 25

Mr Williams told National Radio that the place initially allocated to Mr Hawkins was not a low ranking and one anyone "would have killed for".

Mike Williams is obviously a very experienced person in the ways of Labour. So he would say things advisedly.  My only question is

How many people have died for the helengrad top 25 labour list

Labour list is out.

The Labour party list is out.  Some interesting omissions besides Hawkins.

Following is my quick ranking on the basis of the 41% Labour got in 2002 being held and Labour getting 52 seats (god forbid).

Name	2002 Seat Held	List Ranking Labour	Likelihood into parliament	Sagenz estimate	Rank Reason
BARNETT	Christchurch Central	Not List	1	IN	Unknown
ROBERTSON	Manukau East	Not List	2	IN	Unknown
HAWKINS	Manurewa	Not List	3	IN	Got the pip
DUYNHOVEN	New Plymouth	Not List	4	IN	Got the pip
COSGROVE	Waimakariri	Not List	5	IN	Got the pip
O'CONNOR	West Coast-Tasman	Not List	6	IN	Got the pip
MAHUTA	Tainui	Not List	7	IN	Got the pip
CLARK	Mt Albert	1	8	IN
Cullen	List	2	9	IN
Wilson	List	3	10	IN
MAHAREY	Palmerston North	4	11	IN
HOROMIA	Ikaroa-Rawhiti	5	12	IN
GOFF	Mt Roskill	6	13	IN
KING	Rongotai	7	14	IN
MALLARD	Hutt South	8	15	IN
HOBBS	Wellington Central	9	16	IN
SAMUELS	Te Tai Tokerau	10	17	IN
SUTTON	Aoraki	11	18	IN
HODGSON	Dunedin North	12	19	IN
FIELD	Mangere	13	20	IN
DYSON	Banks Peninsula	14	21	IN
RIRINUI	Waiariki	15	22	IN
BURTON	Taupo	16	23	IN
SWAIN	Rimutaka	17	24	IN
TIZARD	Auckland Central	18	25	IN
CARTER	Te Atatu	19	26	IN
LABAN	Mana	20	27	IN
BARKER	Tukituki	21	28	IN
OKEROA	Te Tai Tonga	22	29	IN
BENSON-POPE	Dunedin South	23	30	IN
PETTIS	Whanganui	24	31	IN
Choudhary	List	25	32	IN
DALZIEL	Christchurch East	26	33	IN
Jones	List	27	34	IN
YATES	Hamilton East	28	35	IN
GOSCHE	Maungakiekie	29	36	IN
HARTLEY	Northcote	30	37	IN
CUNLIFFE	New Lynn	31	38	IN
GALLAGHER	Hamilton West	32	39	IN
CHADWICK	Rotorua	33	40	IN
HUGHES	Otaki	34	41	IN
BEYER	Wairarapa	35	42	IN
Street	List	36	43	IN
Parker	List	37	44	IN
FAIRBROTHER	Napier	38	45	IN
Hereora	List	39	46	IN
PILLAY	Waitakere	40	47	IN
MACKEY	East Coast	41	48	IN
Ching	List	42	49	IN
Moroney	List	43	50	IN
Fenton	List	44	51	IN
Chauvel	List	45	52	IN
Soper	List	46	53
Wall	List	47	54
TAMIHERE	Tamaki Makaurau	Not List	55	OUT
PECK	Invercargill	Not List		IN	Retiring

UPDATE:  Changed the format so my judgement of outcome at same vote % as 2002 shows.    Duynhoven and Cosgrove both miss the list.  As does O'Connor.  All longish serving and no doubt miffed by their ranking or retiring.

Just Left thinks Chauvel is on the tipping point.  For someone ranked so highly by Jordan to be so lowly ranked on the list is yet another indication that helengrad prefer political correctness over competence.  The presence of Maharey at 4 is a very strong indicator of that.  He is able to completely destroy the integrity of the  education sector and is rewarded with a high ranking.

Picking the Election Date - 23 July 2005

With the latest poll results boosting Labour and with confidence in the economy so clearly starting to tank Labour will be bringing forward the election date before the news gets too bad to hide its incompetence.

Things we know.  The Budget is May 19.  The election period is 6 weeks.  The last Lions test is 9 July and the AB's are looking good.

The government would leave itself 2-3 weeks after the Budget to gauge reaction  before announcing the election.  If reaction is bad they still have the option to defer for a few months if necessary.  But we all know that the budget will be a spend up.  That gives us 8-9 weeks from May 19.  This gives us 16 July or 23 July.  Labour are sufficiently cynical to try to benefit from a test win against the Lions despite their leader hating the sport.

My prediction is thus an election date of 23 July 2005.  Time will tell.

UPDATE:  We even have some agreement across the political spectrum on the election date.  Greg Stephens at New Zealand Political Comments: Early Election also thinks there will be an early election.  He makes the good point that Maori require time to organise.  On the other hand span disagrees with her comment.

i don't think they will go early - last time they had a semi-credible excuse (which actually wasn't credible at all, but anyway) this time they won't have anything. i'm picking early Sept but i'm not overly good at picking these things.

Requiring justification has never troubled this government before and I am not sure why it would now.  helengrad is smart enough to choose some manufactured reason as they did last time.  The electorate are also smart enough to understand why they would go early and I really doubt whether anyone would be so upset by the election being brought forward that they would change their vote.  In my case 2 months less of a helengrad government would certainly be reason enough to praise them ;)