The split of the rest of the votes

When you do the numbers as in the posts below and look at the current political play that has helen holding onto the political range from Green through Maori to the religious you see that helen starts with 18 seats, assuming a 2 seat overhang which I consider likely.  If ACT fail to make parliament their seats will go to their arch enemies and make it even more difficult for Dr Don to gain power.

Assume that other small non 5% parties hold their irrelevant shares of the vote.

Mike Williams is sitting in his lair calculating that helen needs get only 37.3% of the vote - 4% less than last time - to get 45 seats and give her enough to govern as a minority government.  The following table shows the view with and without ACT. At 4.5% votes lost the policy of Dunne to go into coalition with the major party comes into play.

Party	2002	2005 Seats	2005 Seats
	Seats	ACT >5%	ACT Out
Labour Party	52	45	47
National Party	27	53	56
New Zealand First Party	13	4	4
ACT New Zealand	9	6	0
Green Party	9	6	6
United Future	8	3	3
Jim Anderton's Progressive	2	1	1
Maori Party		4	5
Total Seats	120	122	122
Overhang		2	2
Left Coalition	76	63	66

That is quite a big ask for National.  But not unachievable.  The polls have been there.  Rather than brush this electoral reality under the carpet and hope for the best I think it is better to point out that all the little parties on the left provide a lot of vote fodder for Helen.  Votes for them are in effect votes for helen.  The table above is not my predicted outcome, merely a reasonable assessment of the worst case for helen to stay in power.

National clearly has scope for some excellent policy.  Dr Brash has cut the most dangerous points of difference out of the equation at the small cost of being labelled a flipper by Cullen.  Voters will appreciate the pragmatism.  My concern about Dr Brash from the mid to late nineties was not his ability to hold the course.  The opposite. 

So with ACT needing some major surgery and National having a lot of work to do the question is only...

What can I do to help?

Comments

[Ruth]

What can I do to help?>

You could start a petition to ban beneficiaries from having the vote Sageone. I do believe that is my best idea so far this year.

[robertp]

I think National needs to seriously look at their image and trustworthiness. The problem I have with them is that they are liable to sell NZ assets, ignore the poor, and pad the pockets of the wealthy. Another problem with electing a brand new government is the irresistible urge to tinker, health in particular is restructured too often.

It seems they do not connect with Kiwis; how will the average NZer benefit from voting National?? Also, as Jane Clifton notes in her latest Listener column, Don needs to be less donnish and more brash. Kiwis elect powerful, dominant leaders such as Muldoon and Clark. But they also like the idea of politics by consensus-- if possible.

Somehow Brash needs a "cool" bandwagon, like Labour's sexual revolution legislation. Personally I would support constitutional reform to add more checks and balances, public accountability, and true democracy that serves the people (in contrast to Labours campaign to enforce its PC ideologies).

Perhaps something like GWB's "caring conservative" slogan. There's a lot to be said for marketing a brand to engender good feelings in the target market. Voters are not necessarily decided by logic but also by visceral feelings. I think National should take note of the "morality" vote picked up by GWB. It could be a point of difference; National could portray itself as the most family-friendly and responsible party.

It would be a good contrast to Labour's long list of morally questionable policies that appear either nanny-statish, irresponsible, or acquiescing to vocal/selfish lobby groups (prostitution reform, civil unions, gambling, smoking, NCEA, lower drinking age, foreshore+seabed, privy council, republicanism, ... ad nauseam).

I would vote National if they just gave me a few decent reasons.

[robertp]

A scandal or two around election time would be a handy way to discredit Labour, and remind NZ of their past misdemeanours.

get rid of the chardonnay socialists!

[sagenz]

robert - a reasonable analysis of the perception but I doubt of the reality. Dr Don is just not a tool of the "rich". he understands economics and is dispassionate enough to do the right thing for the long term,

I suspect that the morality issue is finally what decided him to vote against the CUB. I really think he would appeal to the otherwise United Future voter as well as the economically paramount ACT voters.

Look for his personal morality and values to be a major point of difference between Nataional and the chardonnay socialists.

[Jordan]

Sage - on your last comment, Don's personal morality is a classical liberal one. He is not a Christian moralist and was only persuaded to change his vote on Civil Unions at the last minute by some of his (worryingly silly) advisors.

On the post - if you genuinely think that Labour has performed so badly in the last two years that we will lose 4% of our vote, and that National has done so well that they will double their vote, then you are out of touch with the public mood of the country.

Of course you think the same about me - but my sentiment is based on the opinion polling that is out there and on conversations with a broad range of people. Your opinions can only be based on the latter, otherwise you would have to acknowledge how wrong you are.

[sagenz]

Jordan I referred to "electoral reality". I find it difficult to believe strongly that Labour will lose that 4%. Read the post again. it is not a National booster post. I acknowledge that helen starts with a lead of 18 seats. That is a very big ask.
But I do think it is achievable if National pursue the correct strategy. The New Zealand voter has become increasingly fickle. They know what they have got with helengrad and they do not really like it. this will be an interesting year.

The sentiment that will be tapped is the Orewa sentiment. you can call the man a racist as much as you like but New Zealanders are waiting for an alternative to the PC brigade. Even if the polls dont show it right now, my point was that they did almost one year ago.