Maori Party Special votes will lose it an overhang seat. My logic is that Maori Electorate special votes are a higher % of Special Votes than Maori Electorate votes are of normal votes. ie There are more Maori specials. Add in the higher impact of that and the Maori electorate specials and then give the Maori Party its share of normal special votes and that will be enough to tip the balance so that it loses one overhang seat. That brings Labour Left coalition back to 60 seats of 121. If Green & National get enough special votes that should take one from Labour.
You can guarantee that Winston and Peter Dunne will open negotiations with Labour. Winston - "I want to be Prime Minister and for you all to admire the electoral billboard that must be displayed at Cabinet in 5 times real size!". The negotiations pledge means nothing. They will change it if it suits them. This may be a very unstable government. It depends on what Dr Don is willing to trade away to enter coalition.
My calculation on the Maori seats follows.
|Mâori Party - Maori Electorate Votes 2005||21,842|
|Maori Electorate Totals 2005||84,038|
|Maori Party % of Maori Electorate||26%|
|Total Party Votes 2005||2,239,245|
|Maori Electorate Special Votes 2002||15076|
|Total Special Vote 2002||218846|
|Maori % of Special Votes||6.9%|
|Maori Party % of Party Vote Pre special||1.98%|
|Special Votes 2005||193,348|
|Maori Party Total Normal Votes 2005||47,526|
|Extrapolated Maori Party Specials 2005||7,026|
|Maori Party % of Party Vote post special||2.24%|
According to my calculation 1 Overhang seat would disappear if Maori gain an additional 0.06% of the total vote. In this case they are getting 0.26%. so even if the calc is a little wrong there is a reasonable chance 1 of the overhang seats will go.
That leaves the whole grasp on power open to negotiation.