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Sep 17, 2005

Comments

GeniusNZ

By your calculations - When the maori party trade in an over hang for a normal seat who loses their normal seat?

sagenz

Working it round, if the overhang goes Labour is the one that changes first in my model.

SPC

Maori 30,000 have 25% of the "120,000" Maori electorate votes.

They received barely .5% in other electorates.

25% of 15,000 + .5% off the rest, is 4750.

This does indicate a rise in MP 5 to over 2.1%. "If" this is 3 seats - Greens would already have 7 seats for 5.1%.

It's simplest to look at .75% as a seat.

MP at 2.1% have .6% in the race (closing out a 122nd seat).

The Greens at 5.1 already have .6% in the race to win a 7th seat.
On past trends they are favourites (even taking into account the MP factor).

I would rank the most likely change as Greens to 7 and National to 48.

Second favourite MP staying on 4 and National going to 48.

Given Labour has a 1.1% lead over National, I cannot see National gaining enough to slip onto equal numbers of seats as Labour.

If National did, Labour would still have more votes than National. Peter's has indicated he would have to make a decision, only if National reached the same number of seats as Labour. Otherwise he would campaign in 2008 as the man whose word was kept and who sometimes blocked legislation of the Labour led government 2005-2008.

t selwyn

But is Winston thinking "legacy" at this point? Occasionally blocking lefty Labour-Green stuff isn't a legacy. A golden age card or individual super accounts would be.

SPC

Well my second pick got in

Maori on 4 and the second overhang seat coming off National.

One might have a look at the MMP system of seat allocation itself

It seems a bit like one day cricket rules when overs are reduced.

In my system - a fairer one than they used

I would have awarded Labour "51" National "49" NZFirst 7 Greens 6
Maori Party 4 United 3 and ACT "1". Two seat overhang still and still only 6 Green MPs.

sagenz

yeah i got the overhang reduction right but it became clear national would be the loser not labour. shit happens

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