Greens, Progressive, Winston First, Peter sitting on the fence Dunne and now Maori can all reasonably expect their niche issue/electorate voters to provide enough votes to gain some seats.
The Greens will get over 5%. They will have a late push and young people without cares or responsibilities will vote Green for the trendiness of it. Not because they will make the world a better place, but because they wish the world was a better place. They had 9, I think they will drop back to 6, They have been polling at less than 5% and 6 equates to presence in parliament.
Anderton will get enough support to get back in. Incumbency gives him a voice but he will not carry anyone else. He takes 1 seat.
Maori will win a smaller than 5% share of the list vote but can reasonably expect to win a number of Maori seats resulting in an overhang of 2-3 seats. ( I know I had wildly predicted more in the past but we are being cautious). I guess they will take 4 seats.
After everything Winston has said about Dr Don he knows that if he loses the pensioners he loses his place in parliament. There is a very real possibility that the highly competent local businessman who is the local National candidate will pip Winston in a 3 horse race. Wilson will be a distant third but she will still take some votes. My guess for the purpose of this calculation is that he keeps his seat and/or gets 5%. He has been damaged by the corruption allegations and there is a 50:50 chance he will get ditched. Assuming he gets back in with 4 MP's he will effectively stay in cahoots but out of coalition with helengrad. so his seats go to the left. He is a moron by alienating himself from national as he has done. Politically he would have been better to try to stay as the kingmaker. (word not de-gendered advisedly)
Peter Dunne will win his electorate and go back. It is probable he will get between 2-3% of the vote and take 2 others in with him. The interesting issue will be the religious voters. So badly let down by United Future, where do they go. There is little real possibility that Dunne will get a sound backing from the general public for a third time. If United Future turned very religious to get those votes then they would far prefer to go with the son of a preacher man than the godless left.