Lancet study says Iraqi men had a life expectancy of 698 years. Yeah Right

I see that some blogs such as Sock Thief: The Lancet study on Iraqi deaths and Crooked Timber: The Lancet study on Iraq - it hasn't gone away you know think the Lancet study still has some basis in reality.

UPDATE: Well that first estimate was a pile of crap.  I forgot to take into account accelerated death rates in the elderly.  Factoring that in would give a median life expectancy of around 68 years pre invasion and 67 years post invasion.  Adding nothing to human knowledge I have removed it to save myself further embarassment.  Lesson learned.  I am not a demographer.  Having said that the number of 4 male deaths and 12 child deaths are very low figures to extrapolate off.  Women and elderly deaths apparently declined on an annualised basis.

		People in Sample	Deaths in Sample	Violent Deaths in Falluja	Deaths per Year	Deaths per Year excl Falluja	People In Iraq m	Average Age	Extra Deaths excl Falluja
Children	Pre Inv	2,736	12		9.9	9.9	9.0	7.5
0-15	Post Inv	3,084	53	24	35.4	19.4	9.6	7.5	43,775
Men	Pre Inv	2,187	4		3.3	3.3	7.2	37
15-59	Post Inv	2,220	51	25	34.0	17.3	6.9	37	65,244
Women	Pre Inv	2,205	9		7.4	7.4	7.2	37
15-59	Post Inv	2,233	13	3	8.7	6.7	6.9	37	( 3,607 )
Elderly	Pre Inv	320	21		17.4	17.4	1.0	70
	Post Inv	331	25		16.7	16.7	1.0	70	(3,249 )
Total	Pre Inv	7,438	46	0	38.1	38.1	24.4	-
	Post Inv	7,868	142	52	94.8	60.1	24.4	-	102,163

Comments

[dsquared]

If young people kept dying at the same rate at which they died when they were young, then all sorts of funny things might happen.

However, it has been known to medical science for some time, that as people get older, they become more likely to die.

Fool.

[Hipocrite]

Owned.

[Tim Lambert]

sagenz, you know have the opportunity to join a very very small and select group, that of critics of the Lancet study who were big enough to admit that they stuffed up their criticism. Can you rise to the challenge?

[dsquared]

That was actually pretty big of you, and I apologise for the insult.